Link: Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture

An account on Polymarket made notably timely investments just before a U.S. military attack in Venezuela. This activity occurred after the market speculated on the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, with contracts pricing as low as $0.07.

The account was freshly created and placed over $30,000 in bets, earning a profit of $408,000 within 24 hours of the assault. This raised suspicions of insider trading, possibly linked to someone with Pentagon access.

Podcaster Joe Pompliano highlighted on social media that insider trading is actually encouraged in prediction markets. This points to the fundamental nature of these platforms, which prioritize information dissemination over fairness.

Previous instances of apparent insider trading on these platforms drew little response from the companies. They seemingly place minimal emphasis on regulatory compliance in favor of information exchange.

Kalshi, another prediction market, asserts that insider trading violates its rules, contrasting with the apparent norms in the industry. Polymarket has not responded to inquiries regarding this incident.

Update: Added a comment source from Kalshi, illustrating a divide in policy enforcement among prediction market firms. #

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Yoooo, this is a quick note on a link that made me go, WTF? Find all past links here.